The purpose of this activity is short
but important. That is to help students NOT associate number of
outcomes with probability of outcomes. One could probably teach this to their
students faster than they can read this post.

__The Problem:__

Khan Academy (the wonderful, wonderful
people they are) was asked by Lebron James what the chances of making
10 free throws in a row? I won't attempt to outdo Sal on this one

But I want to draw attention to what I
find to be a more interesting problem. That is, why do students tend
to associate the number of outcomes with the probability of outcomes?
In other words, students tend to sometimes think of outcomes such as
hit/miss, win/loose, yes/no, etc in terms of each result having a
50/50 chance. Or again, we tend to think that probabilities of
outcomes are always distributed equally. This is a dangerous error to
make in life, but the good news is that this is often more an
academic mistake than a real-life mistake

For example, ask the following two
questions to the same person and see what answers you get.

1) If you shoot a basketball, whats the
chances of it going in?

2) If you shoot a full court shot, are
you more likely to make it or miss it?

__The Solution:__

The good news is that you can quickly
teach kids to be skeptical of this by taking them to a basketball
hoop during activity time or gym class and asking the two questions
above, then testing them.

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